In her race to own second place in the 2024 GOP primary, Nikki Haley is seeking to dispel the “If you ain’t first, you’re last” adage.
Haley is now tied with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second in Iowa, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll. More importantly, the trend lines show DeSantis down 3 points and Haley up 10 points since August. What is more, Haley has already surpassed DeSantis in New Hampshire, where she is now in second place in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Haley is emerging as the alternative to Donald Trump, at least in part, because she is more likable than DeSantis. She’s a better debater. She is, as Pat Buchanan used to say, a better “political athlete.”
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Talent aside, DeSantis also mistakenly chose a lane that was already taken.
Instead of assembling a coalition of Reagan conservatives who never liked Trump and former Trumpers who are ready to move on, DeSantis chose to ignore (or offend) the former and focus on attracting current Trumpers who have no interest in quitting The Donald.
He also spent an inordinate amount of energy and capital wooing a very online, right-wing, intellectual faction that constitutes, at best, a small (if loud) sliver of the GOP electorate.
Conversely, after years of similarly oscillating between criticism and throne sniffing, Haley actually chose a lane once the campaign began in earnest.
She shocked everyone during the first 2024 GOP primary debate by criticizing Trump for “adding eight trillion to our debt” and calling him “the most disliked politician in America.”
Her strategy worked. As recently as this spring, DeSantis looked like the best-positioned Republican to take on Trump, and Haley seemed as unlikely to catch fire as Mike Pence (who dropped out of the race this past weekend).
Today, Haley is the one to watch, while DeSantis’ star seems to be fading (which explains why DeSantis is attacking her instead of Trump).
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