Topic:State
and Territory Elections
9h ago9 hours ago
Political enthusiasts around the country will be watching
how Pauline Hanson's One Nation party performs in South Australia's state
election today. (ABC News: Briana Fiore)
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One Nation isn't shying away from the national significance
of today.
"The country is watching what happens in South
Australia," the
right-wing party's star recruit, Barnaby Joyce, said this week.
For the first time since One Nation's dramatic opinion
polling surge in late 2025, voters in the SA election are about to cast their
ballots.
And it will give political watchers across the country a
better answer to some key questions.
Will that opinion polling surge be replicated for One Nation
on election day? And will that translate into Pauline Hanson's party winning
lower house seats?
Pauline Hanson announced Cory Bernardi would be One Nation's
South Australian lead candidate last month. (ABC News: Briana Fiore)
Beyond state borders
Greater clarity on those questions isn't the only reason
South Australia's election will have implications far beyond the state's
borders.
The question with the campaign has never been about who will
form government.
Labor
has a commanding lead in the polls, as Premier Peter Malinauskas seeks a
second term in office.
Labor has long dominated South Australian politics, winning
five of the past six state elections and governing for 20 of the past 24 years.
Both the polls and pundits are expecting that to continue —
with Labor spending this campaign playing offence, targeting a swathe of what
were once extremely safe Liberal-held seats.
But exactly who Labor will be beating — and who it will face
in the next parliament — is the key question.
One Nation was polling ahead of the Liberals. (ABC
News: Briana Fiore)
The Liberal opposition is languishing in third spot in the
polls, with Newspoll putting its primary support at just 16 per cent.
If that number is replicated at the ballot box today, it
would be a staggering drop in support from the election four years ago — when
nearly 36 per cent of people voted Liberal.
If a result like that came to fruition, every single Liberal
lower house seat would be in jeopardy — including leader Ashton Hurn's
electorate of Schubert (currently held by a margin of 11.9 per cent).
Meanwhile, One
Nation is polling significantly ahead of the Liberals — with multiple
opinion polls putting its primary vote in the 20s.
All of that means there are some seriously big questions
Liberals will be pondering tonight as the results come in.
Will conservative seats, particularly in the bush, be seized
by One Nation?
Liberals, like the party's SA leader Ashton Hurn, will be
keeping a close eye on the results. (ABC News: Daniel Taylor)
If One Nation does win lower house seats, will enough
Liberals hold on to ensure they remain the official opposition in the next
parliament?
And, if tonight does turn into a true nightmare for the
opposition, will there be any of them left in the lower house?
If the answers to any or all of those questions do not go
the way Liberals hope, the impact across Australia will be seismic.
From Canberra to state branches across the country, it would
lead to deep soul-searching and the asking of existential questions if
tonight's result is anything like what the polls are pointing to.
No doubt, then, Liberals across Australia will be keeping a
close eye on tonight's results as they come in.
Possible polling day fizzle?
As polling day has drawn closer, South Australian Liberals
have comforted themselves with one recent high-profile example of a third-party
challenger spectacularly flaming out.
Nick Xenophon's 2018 campaign is an example Ms Hurn has
pointed to, when questioned about her party's dire opinion poll results.
Months before polling day, Mr Xenophon's SA Best was polling
ahead of both Labor and the Liberals — prompting questions about whether the
former senator could even end up premier.
In the end, he
didn't even make it into parliament.
SA Best came in a distant third, with 14 per cent of the
vote, and didn't win a lower house seat.
Like this election, that poll had threatened to deliver a
shock that would have been felt in politics nationwide.
Liberals are hoping that, just like in 2018, today's
third-party challenger also fizzles out.
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