SAU 6 NĂM TRUMP CẦM QUYỀN ĐỦ ĐỂ CHO THẤY:
NHỮNG MỤC TIÊU, NHỮNG ĐỀ ÁN CỦA TRUMP RẤT XÁC THỰC VÀ LỢI ÍCH CHIẾN LƯỢC CHO DÂN MỸ, NƯỚC MỸ VÀ THẾ GIỚI TỰ DO NỮA (!) - NHƯNG, HẦU NHƯ TRUMP DÙNG PHƯƠNG PHÁP VÀ CÁCH THỨC "THƯƠNG LƯỢNG (NEGOTIATION)" SỞ TRƯỜNG THƯƠNG MẠI ÁP DỤNG VÀO MÔI TRƯỜNG CHÁNH TRỊ ĐÃ BỊ "PHẢN TÁC DỤNG" (KHÔNG MANG LẠI KẾT QUẢ NHƯ TRUMP ĐÃ TỰ HÀO VÀ MONG CHỜ QUÁ ĐÁNG)- CƠ HỘI CHO TRUMP TRONG 2 NĂM CHÓT SẼ LÀ ẢO TƯỞNG VÀ HƯ VÔ./-Mt68
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How Iran’s ‘bazaar style’ negotiation tactic is stalling
deal talks
Story by Maira Butt
Key takeaways
Diplomatic
Deadlock: Talks remain stalled over nuclear development and Lebanon
sovereignty, with both sides unwilling to compromise.
surrender its right to ever develop highly
enriched uranium and appears to have been manoeuvring to install a government
more sympathetic to Western interests.
Meanwhile,Iran has
said that it will never agree to a deal that does not ensure the sovereignty
of Lebanon and
its borders from Israel - with Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in
Lebanon continuing - and has insisted on its ability to hold on to some nuclear
development capabilities.This has likely not been helped
by Iran’s particular “bazaar style” negotiation strategy, which aims to wear
down its opponents.
Mirroring its military strategy,
which has often been referred to as a “war of attrition”, Iran is willing to
endure weeks of intense haggling in a bid to get its way in the long-run.It is something top diplomat and
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has been open about in his political
memoir on diplomacy, The Power of Negotiation, published in 2025.
The politician is a highly-skilled negotiator who has represented Iran in
high-stakes talks for decades including having worked with Iranian president
Hassan Rouhani on nuclear talks in the early 2000s.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is a highly
skilled negotiator with decades of experience in high-stakes talks for Iran
(AFP/Getty)
Trump’s style embodied in his
business memoir, The Art of the Deal, is more akin to a commercial
business transaction, or as Dina Esfandiary, Middle East Geoeconomics Lead at
Bloomberg Economics describes: “Like shopping in Macy’s”.
“What Araghchi describes is a
disciplined way of stretching the negotiation process until the other side
reveals its impatience, its internal divisions, or its real bottom line,” says
Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Business School Institute
for Geopolitics & Business.
“Delays, repeated demands,
tactical ambiguity and procedural complexity are not necessarily signs that
talks have failed. They may be part of the negotiation itself.”
Araghchi continues in his
memoir:
“The main principle of bargaining is practice: repetition, repetition,
and repetition—combined with steadfastness and persistence. Insisting on
positions and repeating demands is a necessity that must be done each time with
different rhetoric and reasoning.
“Experienced people connected to
the market talk and provide arguments, telling examples and stories so much
that the other side of the deal, as they say, ‘gets numb’ and gives its
consent.”
It explains why Iran, unlike
other countries more pliable to American pressure, have resisted giving in to
demands despite a serious imbalance in military might and power. Prolonging
talks, maintaining ambiguity and extracting incremental concessions while
biding their time, is all part of the technique.
“That matters greatly in the
current confrontation between Washington and Tehran,”
explains Colson. “The clash is not only about nuclear facilities, the Strait of
Hormuz, sanctions, regional influence or security guarantees. It is also a
clash of negotiating tempos.”
This clash has become more
apparent as the weeks progress with no end in sight. At the start of the
conflict, Trump had insisted that the war would be over very quickly, in a
matter of “four to five weeks” at most.
Yet, months
later and despite rounds of high-profile Pakistan-brokered talks, the Strait of
Hormuz remains under the control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and
there appears to have been little movem The US
secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has even implored the United Nations to
intervene in a move unlike the usual impression of American might on the world
stage.
“Trumpian diplomacy tends to
value speed, spectacle and a visible deal. The Iranian style described by
Araghchi values patience, ambiguity, repetition, and attrition,” says Colson.
However, Araghchi who has been
described as calm and patient, but still combative and resilient when required,
has also warned against overplaying your hand.
“Sometimes being patient is good
and increases the results obtained. When you sell snow under the sun,
bargaining more than necessary is a loss,” he wrote in the book.
“At the same time, correctly
assessing the moment to reach an agreement is also an art. Sometimes, insisting
too much leads to the loss of an achievable advantage.
“It is important to know how
much to stretch the rope of negotiations so that it does not break and the
essence of the deal is not lost. You have to know where it is possible to add
smaller advantages to the main results and where you have to sacrifice them to
achieve bigger results. Time management is also very important.”
On 25 February he said a
“historic” deal was within reach before he condemned the shock attacks on Iran
days later as “wholly unprovoked, illegal, and illegitimate”.
“Iran wants to survive and
outlast the US attack,” says Esfandiary. “This war is existential for them so
their pain threshold is high and it’s patient. War is bad for it which is why
it wants to end it, but what would be worst would be to give in to pressure
because that sets a precedent for the future.”
Whether Tehran’s style amounts
to deliberate stalling or a tough strategy of diplomacy remains to be seen.
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ent towards any of the US’s
original goals./-
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